Spring Elections May Be Warnings to GOP
Welcome to Crucial Waukesha County
Oh, to be a young aspiring blogger now that spring is almost here. Welcome to Wisconsin, where we experienced a blizzard on Monday and good campaigning weather by Friday. The future’s so bright for volunteer door knockers, they oughtta wear shades.
Twenty years ago, I don’t remember the weather. But what I do remember is how Waukesha Republicans were plunged into a cold bath of reality. The city of Waukesha elected a membership card-carrying Democrat as mayor, Larry Nelson.
As a property taxpayer, I reacted with my usual calm and detachment.
And I summed up the local mood pretty well.
Nelson, an alderman in our fair city, was the upset winner in a mayoral race over a Republican member of the state Assembly, Ann Nischke. I mean, Nelson was happy, just an unlikely winner. Not only was Nischke favored to win, the Democratic-leaning Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsed her over Nelson.
But Nelson campaigned with bookmarks for everyone and outshone her at the debates. It also helped that Nelson was running in one of the worst years for Wisconsin Republicans. That year, Democrats took the Wisconsin state Senate from the Republicans and Governor Jim Doyle (D) defeated Congressman (and future ambassador) Mark Green (R) to win re-election.
Two years later, Sen. Barack Obama won Wisconsin in the presidential race, after campaigning in Waukesha, and the Wisconsin GOP lost control of the state Assembly, too. Nelson’s win was a warning to the state Republican Party: you will enjoy the flogging.
If Wisconsin Democrats were better at governing, they might have controlled redistricting in Wisconsin after the 2010 census. Instead, Doyle laid off teachers and let the budget get out of control and the Republicans conquered the world in 2010. Nelson lost his re-election bid in 2012, the worst mistake Waukesha ever made.
But for four years, we were governed by a mayor who was proud of his Democratic Party connections. The question is, can history repeat itself?
Allen vs. Halvensleben
State Rep. Scott Allen (R), who once served briefly as an alderman, is running against Alderman Alicia Halvensleben for mayor of Waukesha. Allen, a realtor, is well-funded and has the support of local Republicans. Halvensleben is also running a surprisingly strong campaign with support from Democratic Party-aligned groups.
The office is non-partisan and the incumbent, Shawn Reilly, has certainly tried to be above politics. For the last 12 years, Reilly’s slogan has been “no drama,” and he’s done his best to keep that promise, working with Republicans and Democrats to hook up the city to Lake Michigan water. The exceptions to his promise were thrust upon him, such as the attack on the city’s Christmas parade.
However, after the January 6 insurrection, Reilly announced he could no longer support the Republican Party. Reilly joined Nelson at a recent fundraiser for Halvensleben in downtown Waukesha to show their support for her candidacy.
Allen is doing his part, running as a front-runner, struggling not to offend anyone. He can’t even decide between coffee and tea. While he has a favorite Mexican restaurant in Waukesha, he promises to try them all, and any other Latin American restaurant. Just please vote for him, por favor.
Unfortunately, Allen wasn’t so indecisive in the state legislature when he endorsed Donald Trump’s lawsuit to overturn the 2020 presidential election and then sided with another state representative to try to impeach the state election commission’s executive director.
Allen was decidedly unhelpful to the city of Waukesha as a member of the legislator. While the Republicans in the Wisconsin legislature, including Allen, sat on budget surpluses year after year, municipalities like Waukesha starved for cash. Ironically, Allen said one of the reasons he ran was the number of streetlights that were out at the riverfront. Somebody forgot to tell him that lightbulbs and maintenance workers cost money.
Allen’s front-running campaign has meant no joint appearances with Halvensleben. Probably smart, as Halvensleben comes across in interviews and in person as very knowledgeable about the state of the city, while Allen just sounds vague with promises to be creative in coming up with solutions while also promising candor, something he hasn’t demonstrated on the campaign trail.
Given his resources, Allen should win this election. However, the city of Waukesha no longer has the Republican tilt it once had.
When Nelson won in a good year for Democrats, 2006, the Democratic candidate for governor that year, Doyle, received nearly 42% of the vote in the November election, while Green received just 56%. Four years later, the city of Waukesha was a vote-producing machine for Scott Walker who received nearly 65% of the vote.
In the post-Trump era, the Republican share of the vote in the midterm elections for governor has dropped off a cliff. Walker received just 56.4% of the vote in 2018. Tim Michels received just 51.4% of the vote in 2022.
(In 2012, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan received 57% while Barack Obama and Joe Biden received 41.7%, In Trump’s three elections, he received 51.1%, 51.6% and 52% of the presidential vote in the city.)
After Reilly denounced the Republican Party following the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, he ran with only token opposition in 2022 and received 64% of the vote.
The conditions are right for a Halvensleben upset win. If she does, it could signal a big year for Wisconsin Democrats come November. It could also signal a long-term shift in “crucial” Waukesha County. As the Republican Party moves further towards Trump, its base of support is slipping away in a city the party considered essential to winning statewide.
Wisconsin GOP Filling the Retirement Home
Is 53 years old too young to retire? Not for Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg) who announced he will not seek re-election in November. In his announcement, he said he’s moving to a new home in the Madison area.
LeMahieu joins three of his Republican Senate colleagues in announcing their retirement: Rob Hutton (Brookfield), Steve Nass (Whitewater); and Van Wanggaard,(Racine).
LeMahieu’s announcement follows the announcement of Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) that he will not be seeking re-election this fall. Vos was joined Thursday by Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Kevin Petersen (R-Waupaca) and Rep. Rick Gundrum (R-Slinger). Rep. Dave Murphy (R-Hortonville), who has residency issues, is also not seeking re-election.
Republicans received more bad news earlier this month when Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Annette Ziegler announced that she will not be seeking re-election in the Spring 2027 election. She’ll be 63 years old.
It’s almost enough to make Republicans forget there’s a state Supreme Court election in April, with Waukesha Judge Maria Lazar facing Madison Judge Chris Taylor to replace retiring Justice Rebecca Bradley (54 years old).
Is it just a bad poll result that has all of these Republicans heading to the rocking chairs on the porch at the retirement home? Not quite.
I’m told by insiders that the Republican Party is a mess and candidates are not seeing any hope of support in tough re-election fights.
The April Supreme Court race is exhibit A of the party’s disfunction. While Lazar did okay in the latest Marquette Law School Poll (“undecided” is running away with the election), one local party leader said her campaign is “invisible” in his area. Another Republican insider complained that Taylor should’ve been the easiest leftwing Supreme Court candidate to defeat - ever. Instead, Lazar is likely to lose as no outside groups are going to come to her rescue.
The current party chairman, Brian Schimming, has been a disappointment to Republican insiders. But the party has also had to deal with infighting between the Trump/TPUSA wing of the party and the party stalwarts. It also has to struggle with the strong headwinds of a midterm election and Trump’s relative unpopularity. On top of all of this, Democrats were successful in pushing through a version of their own gerrymandering through the state Supreme Court, making more Republican incumbents vulnerable.
If there is any good news for Republicans, Democratic Party Chairman Devin Remiker is no Ben Wikler when it comes to fundraising and organization. Democratic candidate recruitment may not be strong enough to win the state Assembly. And Democrats are still looking forward to a possibly divisive primary for governor with the potential of nominating a really weak candidate such as former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes or state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison). In the case of Hong, Republicans may find real motivation to go to the polls to vote against Wisconsin’s potty-mouthed version of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Speaking of Retirement Homes
Republican website Wisconsin Right Now’s Jessica McBride was first with the news that 84-year-old former Governor Tommy Thompson is thinking of coming out of retirement to run again for the Republican nomination for governor. Former WISN radio host Mark Belling took a break from blaming illegal aliens for Democratic wins in Wisconsin to also report Thompson is considering a run.
(Seriously, a guy who once was suspended for using the word “wetbacks” on air should really find a less racist conspiracy theory.)
The current front-runner, and Trump-endorsed candidate, is Rep. Tom Tiffany, a real MAGA-style candidate from northern Wisconsin, the Trump stronghold in the state. Besides disliking immigrants, Tiffany voted twice after the January 6 insurrection to overturn the 2020 presidential election. He also signed onto a Texas lawsuit to overturn Wisconsin’s 2020 presidential election results.
However, according to McBride and Belling, internal GOP polling indicates that a MAGA-style candidate will have a real problem winning in November in Wisconsin, just as businessman Tim Michels lost in 2022.
Enter Thompson, who was elected governor four times, was president of the University of Wisconsin system during the Covid shutdown, and was ther Secretary of Health and Human Services under President George W. Bush. Thompson also loves the spotlight, which is why he unsuccessfully ran for US Senate against Tammy Baldwin in 2012.
I’m not buying it. Thompson threatened to run four years ago for governor and allegedly his family talked him out of it. Thompson’s first run for public office was in 1966. If he was too old to be governor four years ago, he’s only gotten older. Baldwin won in 2012 in part because voters thought Thompson was too old then. After the presidency of Joe Biden, the last thing voters will want is another octogenarian politician.
I also bit on the rumors Michels was considering another run. Nope. Tommy! is not running. Fool me once…
If Thompson does run, he won’t even get the Republican nomination. There is no way MAGA will forgive Thompson for his support for the Covid shutdown and the Covid vaccine. Thompson also supported Ohio Governor John Kasich in the 2016 Wisconsin primary instead of Trump.
But if Thompson did run and somehow got the party’s nomination, how awkward will it be for the former HHS secretary to answer questions about his support for Robert Kennedy’s appointment by Trump?
James Wigderson is a writer living in Waukesha, Wisconsin. He is the former editor/owner of RightWisconsin and a former columnist for The Waukesha Freeman. Once described as “the spokesman for the state’s far right,” by the Capital Times, Wigderson is now a critic of the new Republican Party under President Donald Trump.