Polls, Bets, and Ballots
Democracy in Wisconsin
“The force of public opinion is the most intractable of agents, because its exact limits cannot be defined; and it is not less dangerous to exceed than to remain below the boundary prescribed.” — Alexis De Tocqueville, “Democracy in America”
Polls
Wednesday would normally be a public holiday in Wisconsin for political pundits and political junkies alike. Marquette University Law School is releasing their last public opinion poll prior to the Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11.
Normally, Dr. Charles Franklin, the Oracle of Milwaukee, would announce the numbers and his interpretations of the results. Afterwards, the appropriate sacrifices of pixels and ink would be made in honor of the autodialers and interviewers.
Journalists and even yours truly would rapidly hit refresh on Franklin’s Twitter (X) feed in anticipation of some dramatic revelation, and then later everyone would pore through the crosstabs hoping some insight was hiding in the numbers that would say who is going to win the next election.
All that’s lacking is white smoke emanating from the St. Joan of Arc Chapel. “We have a front runner!”
But this year the holiday will have all of the fizzle-sizzle of President Donald Trump’s Independence Day fair. Marquette’s poll was being conducted after Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the race and before Crowley dropped back into the race and during the implosion of Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez’s campaign. We may as well read the entrails of oxen and birds.
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There may be some value in the crosstabs, or in measurements of enthusiasm for voting of the two respective parties this fall. But even the head-to-head numbers between the Democratic candidates and the Republican candidate, Congressman Tom Tiffany, are near worthless at this stage.
Who will forget the stunning news that former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes was leading Sen. Ron Johnson in the first Marquette poll after the Democratic primary four years ago? Then the campaign really began and Barnes (predictably) was defined by Republicans as a radical who wanted to “defund the police” and couldn’t pay his property taxes. It helped that both were true. Barnes ended up losing an election in the same year Gov. Tony Evers easily won re-election.
But we do have another poll, right? Something called “Wedgewood Polls” is claiming it did a poll July 18-20 on the Democratic Primary. Wedgewood claims Hong is comfortably ahead. But the poll only lists three candidates: state Rep. Francesca Hong, Barnes, and Crowley. It’s missing state Sen. Kelda Roys and political insider Joel Brennan.
It’s also pretty amazing that they manage to include Crowley when he only announced on Saturday and the reports about his possibly re-entering the race started late Friday.
Wedgewood Polls is claiming this time the poll was conducted independently and self-funded. However, the last poll was supposedly funded by the shadowy “Isthmus Political Report," which, as Bruce Murphy in Urban Milwaukee reported, seems to be as solid as water vapor. As I noted in a previous newsletter, this could all be a Republican dirty trick.
As the old joke goes, we’re like mushrooms these final days before the August 11 primary. We’re in the dark and being fed bulls—t.
Bets
What about the gambling “prediction markets” like Kalshi? Well, that’s an interesting question. According to Kalshi, most of the money being wagered is on a Hong victory.
Okay, but what does that mean? If I were going to bet on the race for the Democratic nomination for governor, I’d probably put my money on Hong today. Maybe tomorrow I might wager differently. Maybe not.
That’s all that this is, a measurement of wagers. It is very unlikely Hong is going to win 71% of the vote.
It’s also really unlikely 103.1% of the voters are going to vote for these three candidates. You might even say it’s a mathematical impossibility. You might want to think about Kalshi’s inability to add percentages before sending in a wager.
By the way, not only is betting on an election morally wrong but, if you plan on voting in the Wisconsin primary election, it’s also illegal. The Election Commission issued another warning Tuesday. Wisconsin Election Commissioner Ann Jacobs, who has had to endure some teasing from me on the subject, summed it up neatly on her Twitter (X) feed:
(1) If you bet on an election, you cannot vote in that election, & (2) Prediction market betting is a bet under applicable Wisconsin law per the Wisconsin Election Commission.
Kalshi is a little cranky at the news, according to Marshall Cohen of CNN. He passes along their protest which claims the Wisconsin Election Commission is disenfranchising voters.
“Insane and harmful,” compared to the wholesome activity of gambling on an election outcome.
One of Kalshi’s lawyers Robert Deneault said the matter could even end up in court:
“The Wisconsin Elections Commission threatening to prosecute Wisconsin voters and strip away their voting rights for engaging in legal trading activity is unconstitutional and illegal. Election markets certified by the CFTC and available on federally regulated exchanges are legal. Wisconsin hasn't challenged them. And if Wisconsin believes election markets certified by the CFTC are improper, then it should sue the CFTC -- not try to prosecute voters and take away their voting rights. The Wisconsin Elections Commission should retract this guidance before courts are required to force them to do so.”
Deneault says it’s unfair to call “predictions market” gambling “wagers” or “bets.” He prefers to call them “trades.” He even tries to be cute and compares wagering on an election outcome to investing in oil. The problem for Deneault is that there is no commodity being traded. It’s just a wager.
If Kalshi does sue the state of Wisconsin, I bet they lose. What’s the market on that proposition?
Ballots
Speaking of lawsuits, it looks like the Democratic Party of Wisconsin (DPW) may be going to court to change the rules. The good folks at the DPW, noting that 80,000 votes have already been cast in the Democratic primary election for governor, would like to allow voters to change their minds now that a couple of candidates have changed their minds.
Devin Remiker, the current party chairman, sent a letter to the Wisconsin Election Commission asking them to overturn the new rule preventing voters from requesting their previously cast early absentee ballot be thrown out so they can cast a new one before the August 11 primary. The old rule allowed voters to do that, but the Election Commission changed the rule on July 9, after the first early absentee ballots were mailed out.
Since then, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the race for governor, followed by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropping out, and then Crowley dropping back in. So voters who voted for Rodriguez might be feeling some regret for voting for her since she’s no longer in the race and perhaps they would like their votes to count for someone else.
In short: the Democrats are requesting the Wisconsin Election Commission to reconsider their votes to disallow voters from reconsidering their votes. The Democrats want to change a rule that was changed close to the election back to the old rule even though we’re even closer to the election.
Election Commission Chairman Don Millis is already saying he won’t call a meeting to change his vote. That means the Democrats are probably going to sue, probably claiming the change was made too close to the election so let’s make another change now even closer to the election.
Now let’s ask the fun question: how many times can someone change their mind?
Let’s say I was a Sarah Hughes voter and then she dropped out so I voted for Brennan but when he wasn’t doing well I voted for Crowley but he dropped out so I voted for Roys but then Rodriguez was doing better so I voted for her but then she dropped out so I voted for Roys but Crowley jumped back in the race so I voted for him but now I might vote for Barnes if he’s the only one that can stop Hong but I’ll change my mind again if Roys or Crowley can show they can win.
This is why I’m not a big fan of early absentee voting. Too many things can change between the time someone casts a ballot and the actual election.
If you’re going to allow voters to change their minds, maybe it would be best if we limited early absentee voting to just a week before Election Day. But if you are going to make it super easy for everyone to vote early, then I call one-two-three-no-change-backs.
That applies to the Wisconsin Election Commission, too.
The Man with the Plan
Our political fellow-traveler Charlie Sykes interviewed Ben Wikler, the former chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, about his new book, This Is the Plan. Wikler, because of his role with the party, refused to comment on Hong’s unfitness as a candidate, saying he had to remain neutral.
But if any of Wikler’s fellow Democrats were listening, he reminded them what’s at stake. The governor’s role on the presidential election results flowchart is that he (or she) certifies the election, just as Gov. Tony Evers did in 2020 and 2024. Democrats do not want to run the risk of having Gov. Tom Tiffany in charge of certifying the presidential election results for Wisconsin in 2028.
Wikler also talked about “super voters,” swing voters in swing districts and swing states that sway elections.
My question for Democrats: do you want to risk alienating those “super voters” Wikler described, the swing voters who will decide the outcome of the gubernatorial election, by running someone as radical as Hong? Is it worth the risk of letting Tiffany control the outcome of the 2028 presidential election in this swing state?
Finally
The Badger Project sought out my wisdom concerning the race for Wisconsin governor. In short, I said Barnes and Hong, because of their extremism, could depress Democratic and independent voter turnout while energizing Republicans due to fear. Welcome to the best path for Gov. Tom Tiffany.
James Wigderson is a writer living in Waukesha, Wisconsin. He is the former editor/owner of RightWisconsin and a former columnist for The Waukesha Freeman.
One person one vote. It’s an election not an opinion poll.
Great piece today. Agreed with all of it.